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Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, a weekly community post combining open discussion with updates on meetups, local election resources, AI grantmaking research and new projects. The post also introduces MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI, and Common Notes, a proposed community-notes system for content across the web.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, its weekly forum for reader discussion, alongside notices about meetup changes, election resources and AI-related projects. The post asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to complete a survey on the value of AI safety accomplishments, and reports that Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett has announced MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI.
The thread invites readers to post questions and discuss any subject, and points them to the community’s subreddit, Discord and bulletin board. Its announcements include changes to meetups in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia. The post says further details are available in the original announcement, but does not specify the individual changes in the supplied text.
The author says the Boston ACX meetup group completed a Greater Boston general-election voting guide and may publish more guides in the coming week. The post also says work is continuing on a project to model parts of AI grantmaking. It requests responses from people experienced in AI or grantmaking to a survey that asks them to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first, an approach the post says is intended to distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in assigning weights.
The thread announces that Stephen Grugett, identified as a Manifold Markets co-founder and a grantee, has introduced MNX. The post describes it as a real-money market where participants can trade futures tied to AI-company stocks, make bets directly on AI-company revenue and trade on other measures, including targets for the Epoch Capabilities Index. It also introduces Common Notes, a project from Goodheart Labs described as a community-notes system intended to work across websites.
AI Projects Move Into Public View
The post brings several distinct activities to the attention of the ACX readership, including opportunities to contribute to AI safety research and new products that apply prediction or annotation systems to online information. The grantmaking survey is designed to gather judgments from people with relevant experience; those responses could inform the author’s ongoing modeling work. The post does not say that the survey will determine grants or that an automated grantmaking system is ready.
MNX’s proposed markets may give users a way to express expectations about AI firms and their performance through real-money trading. That makes its announcement relevant to readers following AI investment and forecasting, although the thread does not provide details about market rules, access, or the platform’s operation. Common Notes takes a different approach: it aims to combine AI-generated notes with human contributions and voting, then make those notes available through a browser extension. The post describes the project’s design, not evidence of its accuracy or effects.
The local notices also have practical value for readers who participate in ACX meetups or are seeking election information. The thread flags a San Francisco mail-in ballot registration deadline as occurring at the end of that Monday, but the supplied material does not provide a calendar date. Readers should verify deadlines against official election sources rather than rely on a community post alone.
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A Weekly Forum With Notices
Open Thread 456 is presented as a weekly visible open thread, not as a single-topic investigation or formal report. The author uses the post both for open-ended reader conversation and for short announcements about the ACX community and projects connected to it. The thread points to additional community channels and says that some ACX material is free while some is available only to subscribers.
The AI survey continues earlier efforts to model grantmaking, which the post links to, while MNX and Common Notes are presented as separate projects by people or organizations associated with the blog. The thread also gives an early notice for a Bay Area ACX meetup set for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. It says a fuller post may follow. The source does not state the year for that date, so it should not be treated as a current event without checking the original post’s publication date.
“This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.”
— Astral Codex Ten author, in Open Thread 456
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Details Still Missing From Notices
The thread offers brief announcements rather than full specifications. It does not explain the meetup changes in each named city, provide the election guide itself, or identify the year attached to the October 24 Bay Area event. The date and time references are reproduced from the post and may depend on its original publication date.
For MNX, the supplied material does not describe eligibility, market terms, fees, regulatory arrangements, or whether all the listed contracts were available at launch. It also does not independently verify the platform’s status. The author says Polymarket and MNX both price Anthropic at around $2 trillion despite talk of a fall from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion; the post does not identify the exact metric, contract terms, or timing behind those figures. They should be understood as the author’s characterization of market prices, not as a verified valuation of Anthropic.
The Common Notes description does not give performance data, moderation procedures or details about how the system handles disagreement between AI-generated notes and user votes. The grantmaking survey’s results, participation level and effect on any future decisions are also not reported.
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Surveys, Guides and Meetups
The author is seeking survey responses from people knowledgeable about AI and grantmaking, with a second, alternate questionnaire available for those able to contribute more time. The post says the author may publish additional election guides in the coming week and is still considering whether a guide can be produced for the Bay Area. Readers interested in the listed meetups are directed to the original post for local details.
The author says a separate post about the Bay Area meetup may follow. For MNX and Common Notes, the thread points readers toward the projects but does not set out a further launch schedule, product milestones or reporting dates. The next confirmed developments will depend on updates from the project organizers and the ACX author.
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Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is Astral Codex Ten’s weekly open thread, inviting reader discussion while carrying community and project announcements.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask?
It asks respondents to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate version asks people to predict how the author would respond to the first survey.
What is MNX?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with futures tied to AI-company stocks, bets on company revenues and other measures such as Epoch Capabilities Index targets. Further operating details are not provided.
What is Common Notes?
It is a Goodheart Labs project described as a cross-site community-notes system using AI-written notes, user contributions and voting, with a browser extension intended to display notes on different websites.
When is the Bay Area ACX meetup?
The thread lists it for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. The supplied source does not state the year, so check the original post before relying on the date.
Source: rss
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